The Demand Forecast Study (DFS) constitutes DESFA’s outlook on the gas volumes expected to be transported through the NNGTS and the TLS/SSLNG facilities for each of the next ten (10) Years, to serve domestic demand and exports.
The DFS presents market development scenarios based on market modelling, the latest available information and the data received by Network Users, while taking into consideration the European and national energy policy frameworks.
As a general remark, the geopolitics and policy decisions regarding the pace of energy transition affect market conditions and gas flows in a much more unpredictable manner than in the pre-2022 era, increasing substantially the uncertainty of any outlook. In this context, DFS presents a range of domestic demand and potential exports from Greece towards SEE and CEE.
This year’s DFS 2026-2035 confirms the overall trend established in the previous DFSs and in particular DFS 2025–2034.
Specifically, the base case scenario forecasts domestic annual gas demand at a level of 6 bcm in 2026, increasing to 7,1 bcm in 2033 and remaining practically stable until 2035. The exports potential ranges between 1,3 – 3,8 bcm in year 2026 and 1,9 – 3,5 in year 2035.
In addition:
· Gas demand for Power Production, despite high-RES penetration, remains strong throughout the period (driven to a significant extent by electricity exports), confirming the key role foreseen for CCGTs in the NECP
· Demand for Distribution Networks is expected to grow throughout the forecast years, based on DSOs plans for expansion to new geographical areas
· The forecast for consumers directly connected to the HP network, whose demand is highly price-elastic, confirms the recovery trend observed in the last two years vs the sharp decline observed in the high gas price years 2022-2023
· As for ssLNG and truck-loading facilities, Users’ data and DSOs’ projections demonstrate significant demand growth, is expected to serve final demand and transport sectors